Monday, November 14, 2005

Paradigm shift in a freezer

Nature's disruptive technology is crystallization—formation of ice cubes. Here's what happens to water as it cools down:

Water temperature reaches the freezing point—and drops below it. Liquid wants to become solid—the latter is a state that is more cost-effective when it is cold (more energy efficient), but the "ice technology" hasn't been invented yet. As the temperature is lowered, the demand for crystallization grows: it would conserve more energy—physics equivalent for "save more money". After a period of time, a random cluster of molecules finds itself in a crystal-like formation, "inventing ice." Similar to a network effect, the spread of this new technology is rapid, and soon the solid form becomes the "de facto standard."

While the exact shape of crystals is unpredictable, the process itself is inevitable. As the temperature drops, the demand for phase change—expressed in energy that could be saved—increases. It is only a matter of time for a suitable prototype to be discovered through nucleation allowing the phase transition to begin.

Technological revolutions are inevitable, too. Once the computers are connected to a worldwide network, there is an economic pressure to use the infrastructure to create efficient media for communication. The industry is in a "supercooled" state: huge and daily increasing opportunity cost drives the development and deployment of new computer and social protocols. You can't anticipate the exact path the technology will take, but you can successfully predict where it will lead: you don't know how the ice cubes will look, but you know for sure that the water will freeze.

(Although Nem Chua correctly pointed out that ice is not really a crystal, my analogy between a supercooled liquid and computer industry still holds.)

3 Comments:

Blogger Unknown said...

Good reasoning on crystallization. Among the eventual forms crystal- lization results in are the lengths, areas, masses, frequencies, skyscrapers, and other manufactures, each of these shapes and forms being manufcture by the millions of tons each year. Human beings participate in creating the flow of substances from the high entropy and chaos of mineral deposits to the low entropy high purity forms of steel, cement, glass, and other materials. Keep on it.

7:45 PM  
Blogger RC said...

I think like ice, Technology can melt if left out in the open like Bill Gates Windows, but not the ones on his house.

1:57 AM  
Blogger Diary of a Ghost said...

This is a very interesting blog. I like the way you can compare technology with various things so skillfully. Very well-written.

5:07 PM  

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